Supersonic Travel: A Bold Business Vision
Meet Boom, the aeronautics company aiming to make supersonic passenger flights a reality once again. Their pièce de résistance? The Boom Overture, touted as the 21st century’s answer to the bygone Concorde.
Sure, it’s a hefty ambition and the brains behind it are no slackers. I’m convinced that supersonic air travel is technologically feasible. But what’s giving me pause is the timeline—and whether the economics can hold up:
- Boom’s target for Overture to start flying is before this decade’s curtain falls. A quick reminder: Boeing’s 777X, announced in 2013, still isn’t certified, and it’s merely an update, not a supersonic pioneer.
- If Boom magically secures billions in funding, they’d have to shift a large number of Overtures to not only break even but make a profit, all while keeping prices appealing to airlines.
So, Boom’s CEO has rolled out their case for the Overture, and let’s just say it’s a head-turner.
Boom CEO Projects Demand for Over 1,000 Overtures
Boom’s head honcho, Blake Scholl, took to social media to shed light on why he believes supersonic flights will succeed with the Boom Overture where the Concorde did not. Scholl’s prediction? More than 1,000 Overtures in the skies compared to the mere 14 Concordes.
Pretty wild claim, right? Let’s unpack his rationale…
He suggests that starting with a compact private jet for the time-rich isn’t the solution. With over 80% of private jet journeys overland—a venture currently up against the legal no-fly zone—every previous supersonic business jet idea has gone SPLAT.
Scholl uncovers a secret of airline economics: the upfront business class beds, making up to 80% of operational profit. That’s where the loot is.
And get this—if the ride’s twice as fast, who needs beds? Passengers can make do with spiffy seats. The Overture fits 64 primo seats into its agile supersonic frame. As for the old seat designs? Scholl hints the new ones are a show-stopper.
Concorde had a vicious cycle: guzzling fuel meant high fares, which plus the crummy seats in the ’80s and ’90s market led to dud demand, scant flights, and low airplane use. Yikes! High costs begot higher fares, and demand nosedived.
In a successful simulation, Boom found that a 4000+ nautical mile range with about 64 seats makes business class-level profits feasible on many routes. Longer jaunts may need a pit stop—a longer-range variant will roll out later.
And those predicted numbers? Scholl thinks they’re conservative, arguing:
1. Business and First are just counting some Premium flyers itching for a supersonic upgrade.
2. Faster flights mean more wanderlust.
3. Overland supersonic is inevitable.
Ultimately, Scholl foresees a fleet comparable to Boeing or Airbus’s families. Private mini-models, spacious ones for farther travels, and even multi-class options could come down the line.
Scholl’s arithmetic for 1,000+ Overtures rests on capturing a whopping 100% of premium business cabin demand for flights over 2.5 hours. He envisions splitting those seats among Overture’s 64 biz-class chairs, leading to 2,973 daily jet rides. Sounds like accounting gymnastics to me!
By this logic, I might just pivot to e-comm. Maybe I can snag the entire global market share and earn my trillionaire stripes selling link-to-Val Seny ski resort hats!
Why Airlines May Scoff at Supersonic Travel
Supersonic flights are undeniably cool, and some engineers could no doubt pull it off. But what happens when you toss economics and airline interest into the mix?
If, by some miracle, the Boom Overture goes into production, gets certified, and sells at a sweet price, a few airlines might bite under specific circumstances. But I foresee demand mirroring Concorde’s past in terms of feasible routes.
Here’s where Scholl’s “we’ll capture all the premium market demand” dream hits turbulence. What happens to airlines’ current fleets? If, say, United splurges on Overtures for lucrative transatlantic routes, their existing planes become idle cash-drains.
Airlines are profit maestros in diverse ways, and it’s not as cut-and-dry as “business class rakes it in, let’s just fly biz-class jets and say ‘ta-ta’ to economy.”
- Cargo revenue is a piece of the pie the Overture can’t offer.—no trunk space for freight.
- Profit stems from upselling, loyalty programs, and more—the supersonic elite jet isn’t the right juncture for those tactics.
- The hub-and-spoke networks further boggle things, not to mention joint ventures.
- With just a 4,000-mile radius, the plane struggles with prime transpacific paths—limiting time-saving markets.
When quizzed about this head-scratcher, Scholl mused that subsonic premium cabins would shrink, and “economy fares might budge slightly,” all within the usual price variances.
But that sounds dubious to me. How do you keep subsonic planes profitable if the bulk of their profit stems from business class? If Scholl’s logia is true, this means stretching wallet strings for economy to send the wealthy supersonic.
The Bottom Line
Boom’s mission is clear: usher back supersonic passenger service via its Overture project. The CEO envisions 1,000+ of these aircraft taking center stage—grounded on capturing all profitable long-route business demand. Call me a skeptic, but this prediction seems pie-in-the-sky…or maybe too rich for the sky.
So, how does Boom’s business blueprint for the Overture resonate with you?